93GW of additional solutions for cross-border electricity exchange needed by 2040 to achieve the EU Green Deal

Needs have been identified everywhere in Europe, with a total of 50GW of needs on close to 40 borders in 2030 and 43 additional GW on more than 55 borders in 2040. Projects promoters are welcome to submit projects addressing the identified system needs to the TYNDP 2020 until end September.

ENTSO-E’s System Needs study released today shows borders or areas where new solutions for electricity exchange are needed to reach climate neutrality while keeping security and costs under control. Beyond the next wave of anticipated cross-border grid investment (35GW by 2025), needs have been identified everywhere in Europe, with a total of 50GW of needs on close to 40 borders in 2030 and 43 additional GW on more than 55 borders in 2040.

Addressing system needs puts Europe on track to realize the Green Deal, with 110 TWh of curtailed energy and 53 Mtons of CO2 emissions avoided each year until 2040. Market integration would progress, with price convergence increasing between bidding zones thanks to an additional 467 TWh/year of cross border exchanges by 2040. Investing 1.3 bn€/year between 2025 and 2030 translates into a decrease of generation costs of 4 bn€/year, while investing 3.4 bn€/year between 2025 and 2040 decreases generation costs by 10 bn€/year. Addressing the identified needs by 2040 would represent 45 bn € of investment, translating directly into jobs and growth for Europe.

Towards a system of systems

All solutions should be considered to address the identified needs, such as increased transmission capacity, storage, hybrid offshore infrastructure, smart grids and Power to X. As a next step in its Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2020, ENTSO-E will run a cost-benefit analysis of 171 transmission and storage projects and evaluate how they contribute to meeting the system needs. In the future, coordinated planning will be required across sectors (considering electricity and gas but also transport and heat) to turn needs into concrete projects. As a first step in this direction, ENTSO-E has released last month a roadmap for coordinated multi-sectorial planning of infrastructure.

New projects required to fill the 50GW investment gap in 2040

Electricity transmission projects currently under conception or development address only about 43 GW of the 93 GW of needs identified between 2025 and 2040. Results of the System needs study will lead to a development of new projects addressing newly identified needs. To consider these projects already in the TYNDP 2020, ENTSO-E is opening today a second project-submission window, targeting projects commissioning after 2035 and addressing identified system needs. Interested project promoters are asked to visit this page for more information, and to contact Johannes Moolman for any question.

A webinar will take place on 28 September 2020 to present the study. More information and registration here.

Contact person: For any question on the system needs study, please contact Lea Dehaudt

BACKGROUND INFORMATION - About ENTSO-E’s System Needs study

The System needs study is carried out by ENTSO-E biannually and forms part of the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2020 package. The TYNDP is a long-term plan on how the electricity transmission grid is expected to evolve in Europe to implement the EU climate and energy goals.

The reports released today will be submitted to a public consultation alongside other deliverables of the TYNDP2020 in November 2020, before being submitted to ACER for opinion. Final versions of the report are expected to become available in Q1 2021.

RELATED DOCUMENTS

Main report: Completing the map - Power system needs in 2030 and 2040

Summary: Power system needs at a glance

Side-report: System dynamic and operational challenges

Regional investment plan 2020 Northern Seas

Regional investment plan 2020 Baltic Sea

Regional investment plan 2020 Continental Central East

Regional investment plan 2020 Continental South West

Regional investment plan 2020 Continental South East

Regional investment plan 2020 Continental Central South