Today, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG publish their proposed storylines as a first deliverable in the formal process for TYNDP 2022 scenario building, as required by Regulations 943/2019 and 715/2009. All stakeholders are invited to provide feedback until 15 December 2020, ahead of storyline finalisation in early 2021.
This draft storyline report proposes the scenario framework for TYNDP 2022. It is built on the experience of previous editions and on a robust stakeholder engagement since a public webinar in July. As part of ENTSO-E and ENTSOG’s commitment to continuously enhance transparency standards, the report is complemented with the list of bilateral meetings organised as part of the scenario development process, together with answers to all questions raised during the July webinar.
The report up for consultation consists of the storyline development for two future Paris agreement compliant (COP 21) scenarios, together with the outline of the upcoming national policy scenario. The proposed COP 21 storylines are defined along a pan-energy approach, relying on a wide range of energy technologies, sources and carriers. The pan-energy approach taken in the draft storylines is a step towards more system integration in the planning phase. While following different drivers, both storylines achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Input from stakeholders from all sectors will be welcome.
Based on feedback on the previous edition, the draft storyline report for TYNDP 2022 now incorporates quantitative ranges for some of the key storyline parameters to improve transparency. The proposed main scenario drivers outlining the storylines aim to sufficiently differentiate energy systems, for the purpose of infrastructure assessment within TYNDP 2022.
For the 2025 horizon, a “Best Estimate” scenario will be developed and consulted upon. For both the “Best Estimate” and national policy scenarios, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will use data produced by the TSOs, reflecting the latest national and European policies as stated at the end of 2020. The longer-term goals, starting from 2030 will be covered by three different draft scenarios (upon which stakeholders can provide feedback), reflecting increasing uncertainties towards 2050:
1. National Trends
2. Global Ambition
3. Distributed Energy
The ENTSO-E and ENTSOG TYNDP 2022 draft scenario storylines report can be found on a dedicated website, here.
The final storyline report, taking into account results of the consultation, is expected to be published early in 2021. After the finalisation of the report, intense work with continue to develop methodologies to translate the storylines into scenarios involving not only gas and electricity stakeholders but all the other sectors.
Stakeholder feedback can be provided online until 15 December, using this link. Feedback can also be provided during an upcoming public webinar.